What a difference a day makes.
Last Saturday, I went 3-0 to start my Week 15 prop picks… then it all came crashing down on Sunday as I went 0-3, losing some NFL player props in games where the respective player’s teams scored a combined 73 points.
Welcome to betting on NFL odds, where sometimes it just doesn’t make sense; but I’ll try to make sense of the Week 16 odds to get to good juju flowing once again.
We’ve again got games on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, but I’m in a weekend kinda mood this week — so my NFL picks tackle a new No. 2 WR and a white-hot running back in action on Saturday, followed by an MVP candidate slinging it all over the field, a struggling RB with a very good matchup, and more!.
Let’s get ready to roll with my favorite NFL prop picks for Week 16.
Latest NFL prop picks
- KhaDarel Hodge Over 10.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
- Breece Hall Over 45.5 rush yards (-110 at bet365)
- Dak Prescott Over 23.5 completions (-132 at FanDuel)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
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NFL prop picks for Week 16
Hodge podge
Atlanta Falcons receiver KhaDarel Hodge has 13 catches on 19 targets for 227 yards…
…for the entire season.
All 14 games.
But here’s the thing: Nine of those targets, six of those catches, and 135 of those yards came in six quarters when Taylor Heinicke took over from Desmond Ridder as the Falcons’ quarterback.
Now, Heinicke is again back under center for Atlanta, so I’m looking at betting KhaDarel Hodge odds. His receptions total is 0.5, but juiced in the -240 range, so instead I’m going to bet his receiving yards prop at a robust line of 10.5 yards.
Listen, I know this ain’t pretty, but stick with me, OK?
In the games in which he’s caught a pass (which is eight of his last 12), he’s registered at least 10 yards every time and has topped the 10.5-yard mark seven times.
This isn’t as much a play on the matchup — although the Indianapolis Colts’ secondary isn’t particularly great — but more betting on a guy to get one catch with a quarterback that seemingly has a good connection with him.
Prop: KhaDarel Hodge Over 10.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)Pick made on December 21 at 1:57 p.m. ET
Jet fuel
Things have been ugly for the New York Jets, topping 13 points just once in its last eight games, and that has especially applied to the run game, which has mustered just 60.8 yards per game during that span.
If you’ve backed the Over on Breece Hall’s odds for his rushing total during that span, you’d be a miserable 0-8, but there’s reason to believe that Week 16 is when this losing streak ends:
The Washington Commanders defense is a bigger embarrassment than the Jets offense.
Yes, we get the highly resistible object against a very moveable force on Sunday, but I’m fading the Commanders more and taking Hall to top 45.5 rush yards.
Washington’s run defense has given up at least 91 yards on the ground in 13 of 14 games this season, while allowing the opposing lead back to average 75.6 rushing yards per game and record 51+ yards 13 times.
It’s gotten even worse as of late, as last week’s effort vs. the Rams — 196 total rushing yards allowed and 152 specifically to Kyren Williams — marked the sixth straight game where an opposing lead back has topped 63 rushing yards, averaging 89.5 yards during that span and surrendering 123 rush yards per game overall in this stretch.
Washington’s defense overall gives up the highest yards per play (6.7) and has the lowest rate of 3-and-outs forced (24.1%), per The Athletic. Combine that with a Washington offense that’s cratered over the last four weeks facing a still-stout Jets defense, and New York should be able to run more plays and give Hall more chances to run the ball, even with third-stringer Trevor Siemian likely starting at QB.
Game script should also help out Hall on Sunday, as the Jets likely aren’t going to be trailing by multiple touchdowns (as they have in three of their last five games) so a balanced (or run-heavy) running attack should be in play for all four quarters.
Industry projections average around 65 yards for Hall on Sunday, with some models forecasting as high as 74 yards — a full 20 yards more than his current total. It’s been a slog for Gang Green’s star RB, but this is arguably the worst run defense he’s faced in months; he should be able to finish with a competent (not even necessarily good) day on the ground.
Prop: Breece Hall Over 45.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)Pick made on December 21 at 11:26 a.m. ET
Spreading holiday cheer
Sunday’s matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins is lining up to be one of the most offensive contests of Week 16, with a total of 51.5 easily the highest of the week, and I’m getting in the holiday spirit with this pick, as I expect Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott to be in the spirit of giving and go Over his completions total of 23.5.
The Cowboys have some incredible home/road splits — and their quarterback is no different — but looking at the rest of Dak Prescott’s odds, I’m more confident in his completions as it’s a number he’s topped in three of his last six road games (compared to his passing yards going 1/6 in that span) and the Dolphins pose a good matchup this week for a passing offense to at least be competent.
Miami’s secondary is decimated by injuries, as 3/4 of its starters (CB Xavien Howard, S Jevon Hollard, S DeShon Elliott) are all questionable to play, while DE Emmanuel Ogbah is also questionable and two other pass rushers (Jerome Baker and Jaelan Phillips) are out for the season.
Facing a gutted secondary that already was 23rd in the NFL in completion rate allowed, with a weakened pass rush, should give Prescott plenty of time to let the likes of CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson get open — not to mention Miami’s run defense is one of the better units in the league, sitting fourth in yards per attempt and yards per game, while allowing an opposing team to top 100 rush yards just once in its last eight games.
Projection models land right around 25 completions for Prescott on Sunday, and while most books are offering this line at 24.5, FanDuel is offering 23.5 (with a little juice), but it’s worth paying considering the shootout potential and deficiencies in the Dolphins’ pass defense.
I would still play the 24.5 as well, especially if you can find it at even (or plus) money.
Prop: Dak Prescott Over 23.5 completions (-132 at FanDuel)Pick made on December 21 at 8:43 a.m. ET
Math Adds up
With the return of superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson last week — and QB Nick Mullens’ propensity to frequently target TE T.J. Hockenson — most people were down on rookie Jordan Addison’s chances of having a productive day last week against the Cincinnati Bengals’ struggling secondary.
Well, were we all wrong as everybody got fed in the Minnesota Vikings offense: JJ caught seven passes for 84 yards, Hockenson had 6/63, and Addison caught all six of his targets for a game-high 111 yards.
With a matchup this Sunday against another beatable secondary in the Detroit Lions, I’m expecting Addison’s productivity to continue and taking the Over on his receiving yards prop, which is as high as 50.5 at some books but you can find available at 46.5 courtesy of FanDuel.
Jefferson’s return meant most of the attention (in terms of double teams and single matchups with Chidobe Awuzie) from the Bengals was on him, which left Addison in many 1-on-1 matchups where he could use his speed to get open (against lesser DBs) and break short catches into longer plays, as he beat the Bengals on a variety of routes all across the field. In fact, on the year Addison averages 14.9 yards per catch and 1.80 yards per route run with JJ on the field… compared to 6.6 ypc and 1.50 YPRR without him.
Over the last eight games, Detroit’s defense has been able to contain bad passing offenses — Chicago (twice), Denver, and the Raiders, all of which are 21st or worst in dropback EPA/play, averaged 185.3 passing yards per game — but good aerial attacks have been a different story: The Saints, Packers, Chargers, and Ravens averaged 303.8 yards through the air.
Addison has also been relatively consistent over the last half of the season, with 44+ yards in six of his last eight (the two exceptions being the consecutive ugly efforts Joshua Dobbs laid that led him to get benched) and averaging 80.2 yards per game in those non-Dobbs duds.
Industry consensus projections put Addison around 54 yards on Sunday, with some models ranging as high as 59. Considering he has Mullens, who may not make the best decisions but isn’t afraid to throw the ball (and throw it downfield), under center in what could be a high-scoring game with Detroit’s offense also clicking, I love Jordan Addison’s odds to top this total.
Prop: Jordan Addison Over 46.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)Pick made on December 21 at 8:23 a.m. ET.
Into the Boyd
As soon as the Cincinnati Bengals announced today that star WR Ja’Marr Chase would be out for Saturday’s divisional matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, we instantly saw Tee Higgins’ receiving yards line tick up a few yards to as high as 60.5.
He’s now the de facto No.1 and we just saw him put on a show in the fourth quarter of their Week 15 win over Minnesota, but I think the value lies in betting on another Cincy WR, so I’m on the Over for veteran Tyler Boyd’s odds to top his modest receiving yards total of 33.5.
There’s no question Higgins will be the best receiver on the field for the Bengals, but he should be seeing a lot of rookie CB Joey Porter Jr., who is fifth in coverage success rate (per Next Gen Stats) and also has the size at 6-foot-2 to compete for jump balls with the 6-foot-4 Higgins, who gained almost all his yards last week simply by being a heckuva lot taller than some tiny Vikings CBs.
Instead, I’ll look to QB Jake Browning’s new No. 2 WR to exploit the rest of a Pittsburgh secondary that has allowed the 10th-most receiving yards to WRs this season and will again be without star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, who injured his knee in last week’s 30-13 loss to Indianapolis.
We should see Boyd line up frequently in the slot (a spot only Chase occupied more among the Bengals WR) on Saturday, meaning he’ll face either Chandon Sullivan (13/18 for 132 yards when targeted in slot coverage) or veteran Patrick Peterson (8/14 for 115 in slot), neither of which are overly imposing.
Sullivan and Peterson also both rank outside the Top 110 CBs (with minimum of 50 coverage snaps), in Pro Football Focus’ grades for man-to-man coverage — and the Steelers deploy the sixth-highest rate of man coverage in the league.
Projection models range as high as 58 yards for Boyd this week, with a consensus average of around 48 yards, which gives us a nice buffer compared to his current line.
Prop: Tyler Boyd Over 33.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)Pick made on December 20 at 2:18 p.m. ET
Electric Cookin’
The breakout for Buffalo Bills running back James Cook has been a sight to behold, as he continues to get more touches and capped things off with 221 scrimmage yards against the Dallas Cowboys last week.
Most of that total (179 yards) came on the ground, but that’s also led to his rushing total sitting nearly 20 yards higher than his usual average over the last eight weeks, so the James Cook odds I’m more interested in is his receiving yards total against a Los Angeles Chargers defense that just gave up (check notes) 63 points to the Raiders.
Cook’s total is currently sitting as high as 26.5 yards, but some operators are still offering 23.5 — a number he’s topped in four straight games (coinciding with the firing of former OC Ken Dorsey), while averaging 52.8 yards per game in that span.
He’s also seen his target share go from 8.4% through Week 10 to 15% during this stretch (sixth among all RBs, per The Athletic), which has translated to almost five targets per game and sits fifth among all running backs in receiving yards this season — plus he’s second in yards per catch and seventh in YAC per reception among all backs with at least 20 grabs.
He also gets to face off against a Chargers defense that allows the second-most receiving yards per game (48.5) to RBs and has given up 25+ receiving yards to at least one back in five of its last six games.
Industry consensus projections put Cook at 28.5 yards for Saturday night, ranging as high as 32 yards, so it adds a little more confidence that the Bills’ main back should continue to deliver out of the backfield.
Prop: James Cook Over 23.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)Pick made on December 20 at 1:16 p.m. ET.
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NFL Week 16 prop betting card
- James Cook Over 23.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Tyler Boyd Over 33.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Jordan Addison Over 46.5 receiving yards (-114)
- Dak Prescott Over 23.5 completions (-132)
- Breece Hall Over 45.5 rushing yards (-110)
- KhaDarel Hodge Over 10.5 receiving yards (-110)
Last week: 3-3Season to date: 39-37, +1.83 units
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Before Jared Hochman joined the Covers team in 2020, he worked for newspaper outlets such as the Chronicle Herald and The Coast, worked in marketing for SkipTheDishes and Vivid Seats, and previously ran a magazine. A journalism graduate from the University of King’s College in, Halifax, N.S., “Hoch” brings more than a decade of experience in sports betting, having worked as a freelance handicapper, making appearances on Monumental Sports Network and the Sharp 600 podcast, and now also filling in occasionally as host of Covers’ NHL Puck Props.
Awarded Covers’ company MVP for 2023, Jared is an avid bettor of MLB, NFL, NHL, and NBA, while also wagering on some soccer and WNBA. His best advice for sports bettors? Price shop — something he does daily across 10 different sportsbook apps.
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